Since the turn of February and March 2026, the world oil market has been running in emergency mode. The Strait of Hormuz – the narrow passage between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula that carried roughly one in five barrels of the world's oil before the crisis – has been all but closed to normal shipping for months. In October the situation escalated again, and oil went back above $100 a barrel.

This article is not about politics. It is about how an event several thousand kilometres away ends up in your budget – through the petrol station, your heating bill and supermarket prices.

What is actually happening

Before the crisis, a barrel of Brent crude (the European benchmark) cost about $72. When traffic through the strait almost stopped in early March, the price jumped by more than 25% within days. The peak came at the end of April: on 30 April Brent touched $126 intraday, its highest level in four years.

Summer brought relief. In June tankers were passing through the strait again, and on 24 June Brent closed at $73.74 – almost where it started. It looked like the worst was over.

Autumn brought the tension back. According to analytics firm Kpler, a record 10 tankers were struck in the week from 28 September to 4 October (the previous weekly record was 6). On 8 October Brent cost about $105, on 14 October it rose above $107, and on 15 October it closed at around $104.50. The flow of oil through the strait is still many times lower than before the crisis.

Why diesel is rising the most

In this crisis the biggest price jump is not in crude oil itself but in diesel. The Gulf region is a major exporter of refined fuels, and diesel powers lorries, ships, farm machinery and much of industry. When it is scarce, refineries around the world compete for the same supplies.

For ordinary people this matters for one reason: expensive diesel means expensive transport, and expensive transport makes almost everything more expensive. Bread, vegetables, online parcels, building materials – each of them travelled on a truck at some point. That is why economists worry that fuel price increases will "spill over" into the rest of the shopping basket.

In the United States the average price of diesel was $6.28 a gallon and regular petrol $4.36 a gallon in early October, according to the AAA motoring association.

What governments and energy agencies are doing

In March the member countries of the International Energy Agency (IEA) agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves. By early October about 325 million had reached the market, with roughly 100 million more on the way – including a dedicated diesel release that G7 countries agreed to at the start of October. IEA members still hold around 1.1 billion barrels in storage, including more than 200 million barrels of diesel.

Reserves soften the shock but cannot replace normal trade. As analysts at ING put it, prices can only fall sustainably once the risk to supplies itself is addressed.

Gas is getting more expensive too. The Dutch TTF contract, which sets the price of gas for much of Europe, traded just above €86 per megawatt-hour on 14 October – close to a four-year high. That feeds into heating and electricity costs in the months ahead.

Poland: cheaper thanks to taxes, not oil

A good example of how governments cushion the blow is Poland. If you filled up there in October, you might think nothing was happening. That is the effect of the government's "Lower Fuel Prices" programme (CPN), which returned on 3 October and is due to run until 31 December 2026.

It works in three steps:

• VAT on petrol and diesel was cut from 23% to 8%.
• Excise duty was cut by PLN 0.29 per litre of petrol and PLN 0.28 per litre of diesel.
• The Ministry of Energy publishes daily maximum prices that no station may exceed (stations may sell for less).

From 14 October the cap is PLN 7.11 per litre of 95 petrol and PLN 7.98 for diesel. For comparison: in September, when the programme was paused, diesel cost more than PLN 9 at many stations, and fuel was 36% more expensive than a year earlier, according to Poland's statistics office.

What may happen on 1 January

This is the part worth keeping in mind when you plan your budget for early 2027. Temporary relief measures have end dates. If the Polish programme is not extended and oil stays where it is, VAT returns to 23% and excise to the full rate.

A back-of-the-envelope calculation (ignoring margins and other changes, so only a rough guide):

• 95 petrol: PLN 7.11 without the tax cuts is about PLN 8.45 per litre.
• Diesel: PLN 7.98 without the tax cuts is about PLN 9.45 per litre – roughly what it cost in September.

For someone who buys 150 litres of petrol a month, that would mean spending about PLN 1,270 instead of about PLN 1,065 today – roughly PLN 200 more every month. It does not have to happen: the programme may be extended and oil may get cheaper. But it is better to be prepared than surprised. The same logic applies anywhere a government is temporarily holding fuel prices down.

What you can do right now

You cannot influence the price of oil. How hard it hits your budget is partly up to you.

• Check how much you really spend on fuel. Most people underestimate it by 20–30% because they fill up "a little at a time". Collect your receipts for the last three months or log every fill-up in a separate category.
• Plan January with a buffer. If fuel is a big item for you, add 15–20% to your January budget. If prices do not rise, you will have a surplus – which is also fine.
• Watch your heating bills. Expensive wholesale gas reaches household tariffs with a delay. Economists at Poland's mBank expect higher electricity and gas tariffs at the start of 2027.
• Do not change your saving plans in a panic. Commodity crises can be violent, but they do not last forever – in June the oil price fell almost back to its pre-crisis level within a few weeks.
• Build or top up your emergency fund. This is exactly what 3–6 months of expenses set aside is for: periods when living costs rise faster than your salary.

In short

• Brent costs about $105, more than 40% above its pre-crisis level.
• Diesel is rising the most, and through transport it pushes up the price of most goods.
• In Poland a tax-cut programme with price caps protects drivers until 31 December.
• Without an extension, a litre of petrol there could cost about PLN 1.30 more in January.
• The best response is not panic but a precise budget for fuel and energy for the coming months.

Information and educational material, not financial advice. Oil prices change daily – figures as of 15 October 2026.

Sources: CNN – record tanker attacks (8 Oct 2026), Euronews – oil and gas prices (14 Oct 2026), Wprost – Polish fuel price caps from 14 Oct 2026, Wikipedia – 2026 oil market chronology, Bezprawnik – Polish inflation in September 2026. Photos: Unsplash.