After more than a year of calm, inflation in Poland has moved above the National Bank of Poland's target again. According to final data from Statistics Poland (GUS), consumer prices in September 2026 were 4.1% higher than a year earlier and 0.7% higher than in August. The flash estimate at the end of September said 4.0%, so the final figure turned out slightly worse.

For comparison: inflation was 3.4% in August, 3.0% in July and just 2.1% in January and February. The NBP's target is 2.5% with a tolerance of one percentage point either way. September is the first month since June 2025 in which inflation rose above that band.

What actually got more expensive

The 4.1% average hides very different stories. It is worth looking inside, because your "personal" inflation depends on what you spend your money on.

• Transport: +17.9% year on year. This is the main culprit. In September the government's fuel price relief programme was paused, and oil cost more than $100 a barrel after the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz. The monthly rise in fuel prices alone added more than half a percentage point to inflation.
• Housing and energy (electricity, gas, heating fuel, water): +5.1%.
• Services: +5.3%. Services are rising faster than goods (+3.6%) because a large part of their price is wages, and wages are growing at about 6% a year.
• Food and non-alcoholic drinks: −0.4%. Good news: food is on average slightly cheaper than a year ago.

Economists at mBank estimate that core inflation – excluding energy and food, which shows the "deeper" trend – fell to about 3% in September from 3.3% in August. That is an important signal: for now, high inflation is mainly the result of a fuel shock rather than general overheating of prices.

What the Monetary Policy Council did

At its October meeting the Council (RPP) left interest rates unchanged. The NBP reference rate stands at 3.75% – the same since March 2026, when it was cut by 0.25 percentage points. The lombard rate is 4.25% and the deposit rate 3.25%. The decision was no surprise: none of the 20 economists surveyed by Rzeczpospolita and Parkiet expected a hike.

At a press conference on 8 October, NBP governor Adam Glapiński said he does not expect a rate hike in November, but it cannot be completely ruled out. He listed five risks that could slow the return of inflation to target:

1. fast demand growth in Poland (GDP grew by almost 4% year on year in the second quarter),
2. stronger economic growth abroad, including in Germany,
3. rising agricultural commodity prices,
4. fiscal policy – the draft 2027 budget assumes a public finance deficit of 7.1% of GDP,
5. faster growth in industrial producer prices.

On the other hand, since 3 October the "Lower Fuel Prices" programme is back (lower VAT and excise on fuel, maximum prices at stations). Economists say it could lower inflation by around 0.7 percentage points, and the NBP hopes inflation could return to the target band as early as October. The programme, however, is only due to run until the end of the year.

The November RPP meeting, when the Council receives a new inflation and GDP projection, will be key. Some economists (including at Credit Agricole, ING and Pekao) allow for one to three rate hikes in the coming quarters. Futures markets price rates about one percentage point higher in a year. Many analysts still assume rates will stay where they are.

What it means for your loan

If you have a variable-rate loan, your repayment depends on the WIBOR index (or its successor), which reacts to expectations about NBP rates. The market is already partly "pricing in" possible hikes, so the index can rise before the Council does anything.

How much could it cost? According to calculations by Rankomat, a 0.75-point rise in 3-month WIBOR would mean a repayment more than PLN 130 a month higher for a PLN 400,000, 25-year mortgage taken out in January 2018. For people still planning to borrow, each 0.25-point hike reduces the borrowing capacity of a family with one child and PLN 12,000 net income by about PLN 20,000.

What you can do:

• Check in your contract when your rate is reset (every 3 or 6 months) and which index it follows.
• Calculate a "safety" repayment – for example PLN 150 higher – and see whether your budget can handle it.
• If you are considering a fixed rate for a few years, compare offers now. A fixed rate is a form of insurance: you pay for the certainty that your repayment will not rise for several years.

What it means for your savings

With inflation at 4.1%, money sitting in an account that pays no interest loses about 40 units of real value a year for every thousand. So it matters not only how much you save but also where.

A good benchmark in Poland is retail treasury savings bonds. Their interest rates in October are the same as since April:

• 1-year (ROR): 4.00% – at current inflation, roughly "zero" in real terms.
• 4-year (COI): 4.75% in the first year, then inflation + 1.5 percentage points.
• 10-year (EDO): 5.35% in the first year, then inflation + 2 percentage points.

Inflation-linked bonds (COI, EDO, and for families receiving the 800+ child benefit also ROS and ROD) protect you if inflation stays high longer than everyone expects. Every investment decision depends on your time horizon, though – we cover the details in our guide to treasury bonds.

Your own inflation

Average inflation is a statistic. Yours is different. Someone who drives a lot felt September much more than someone who walks to work and spends mostly on food – which actually got slightly cheaper.

The easiest way to check: compare your spending in each category with a year ago, or even three months ago. If you record your expenses in an app, just look at your average spending per category and compare it with earlier periods. Then you know exactly where to look for savings instead of cutting everything blindly.

In short

• September inflation: 4.1% year on year – above the NBP target for the first time since June 2025.
• Mainly because of fuel and transport (+17.9%); food even got slightly cheaper.
• NBP reference rate: 3.75%, unchanged; a November hike is unlikely but not ruled out.
• Borrowers: calculate your repayment with a buffer.
• Savers: compare interest with inflation – what counts is what is left after subtracting it.

Information and educational material, not financial or investment advice.

Sources: Analizy.pl – final September 2026 inflation reading, Bezprawnik – GUS flash estimate, Parkiet – October RPP decision, Wprost – NBP governor's press conference, SII – October bond offer. Photos: Unsplash.