The past few weeks brought plenty of worrying headlines about Russia and Poland. In that atmosphere it is easy to make a bad financial decision on emotion: withdraw everything from the bank, sell investments at a loss or buy gold at any price. This article sorts out the facts and suggests what actually makes sense.

What happened

Russia's letter to NATO. At the end of September, Reuters revealed the contents of a document Moscow had sent to NATO. In it, Russia accuses Alliance members of a "dangerous and reckless course" that could lead to "the outbreak of another armed conflict". It also warns against any attempt to cut off the Kaliningrad exclave and threatens to use nuclear weapons in that case.

Poland's response. On 2 October, Polish Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maciej Wewiór called it "a cynical and reckless attempt at escalation". He stressed that NATO is a defensive alliance and that the credibility of Article 5 – the principle that an attack on one member is an attack on all – is not in doubt. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said the Alliance is ready to respond if Poland, Finland or the Baltic states are attacked.

The prime minister's words. On 12 October, opening the Warsaw Security Forum, Donald Tusk said: "We are preparing for various scenarios. This has long stopped being an essay topic. These are very concrete threats resulting from Russia's aggression against Ukraine." He added that Poland is "investing a great deal in its own defence".

Reports of possible provocations. For months, media outlets (including Poland's Onet, followed by foreign newsrooms) have reported, citing anonymous sources, that Russia might attempt a limited provocation – such as a drone attack on infrastructure or a brief border violation – to test NATO's response.

What is known, and what is not

It is worth separating facts from speculation:

• Facts: Russia is conducting hybrid operations against Europe – sabotage, airspace violations, disinformation campaigns. In September 2025 about 20 Russian drones entered Polish airspace. The letter to NATO and the sharp response from Poland's Foreign Ministry are documented.
• Unknowns: warnings of a specific provocation rely largely on anonymous sources. It is not known whether any political decision has been made, or what the target, form and timing would be. Analysts point out that with its forces committed in Ukraine, Russia is not currently capable of a full-scale war with NATO – hence the concern is about smaller, "deniable" incidents.
• Moscow's position: Vladimir Putin publicly insists Russia has no aggressive intentions towards Europe.

To be honest: nobody knows what will happen. But "unknown" is not the same as "war is about to break out".

How markets are reacting

Financial markets are the best thermometer of panic – investors react to risk faster than anyone. And they are calm:

• Stocks: the WIG20 index ended the week of 12–16 October at around 4,208 points, up 0.5% on the week before.
• The złoty: strengthened against the dollar in the second half of the week; USD/PLN fell below 3.88. The NBP average euro rate on 15 October was PLN 4.3691.
• Bonds: the yield on Poland's 10-year bonds was around 6.3–6.4%. That is high, but mainly because of inflation, high global interest rates and a large budget deficit – not a sudden fear of war.

In other words: investors are pricing in geopolitical risk, but there is no sign of a flight from Poland.

Defence spending and your wallet

Security costs money. According to Defence24, Poland will spend about PLN 191.5 billion on defence in total in 2027 – from the defence ministry budget (about PLN 131.7 billion, roughly 3% of GDP) and the Armed Forces Support Fund (PLN 66.3 billion). That is similar to 2026. The draft 2027 budget assumes a public finance deficit of 7.1% of GDP.

For ordinary people this means the state borrows a lot. High debt keeps bond yields – and indirectly loan rates – high. The NBP governor listed fiscal policy as one of the risks to bringing inflation down.

What to do sensibly – and what not to do

Don't:

• Don't withdraw all your savings from the bank. Money in Polish bank accounts and deposits is guaranteed by the Bank Guarantee Fund up to the equivalent of €100,000 per person per bank (similar schemes exist across the EU). Cash at home earns nothing and can be stolen or burn in a fire.
• Don't sell investments in a panic. Historically, the biggest losses are suffered by those who sell at the bottom after bad news.
• Don't buy gold "at any price". Gold can be part of your savings, but buying it nervously at a high price is often an expensive mistake. Beware of sellers who play on fear.

Do:

• Have an emergency fund. 3–6 months of expenses in a savings account is the best protection for any situation – including job loss or illness, which are far more likely than war.
• Keep some cash at home. Poland's official "Safety Guide" (from the defence and interior ministries and the Government Security Centre) recommends supplies for 3 days, including cash in various denominations – in case of, for example, a power cut or a payment system outage. We are talking a few hundred złoty in small notes, not your life savings.
• Look after your documents and data. Copies of key documents, your bank's phone numbers, passwords in a safe place. If you keep a budget in an app, back up your data.
• Watch out for scammers. In uncertain times there are more fake text messages and calls "from the bank" or "from the authorities". No legitimate institution will ask you to transfer your savings to a "safe account".

In short

• Russia is threatening NATO; Poland and the Alliance respond firmly; warnings of provocations rely partly on anonymous sources.
• Markets are calm: the WIG20 slightly up, the złoty stable.
• Defence costs about PLN 191.5 billion a year, and a high deficit keeps interest rates high.
• The best protection is an emergency fund and a little cash at home – not panic decisions.

Information and educational material, not financial advice. As of 18 October 2026.

Sources: Polsat News – Foreign Ministry response to Russia's letter (2 Oct 2026), Polsat News – Tusk at the Warsaw Security Forum (12 Oct 2026), Baltic Sentinel – analysis of Poland's warnings, PBS NewsHour – Poland braces…, Analizy.pl – weekly market summary (16 Oct 2026), Defence24 – 2027 defence spending, Interia – the official guide on cash. Photos: Unsplash.